Monday, October 13, 2003

You're punting on first down? Tampa Bay doesn't even do that!

The Buffalo Bills, the nation's most important sports franchise, got buried yesterday by the nation's most dispensible sports franchise, the New York Jets. The final score was a lopsided 30-3. The Bills scored a field goal on their first drive, and they never threatened to score again. They couldn't run the ball. They could barely throw the ball. They certainly couldn't protect their quarterback, who fell beneath the weight of various defensive linemen or linebackers seven times.

The Bills are now the proud owners of a 3-3 record, which isn't a disastrous mark to have but too many holes have been exposed in their team. My original prediction was for the Bills to win their division and go to the playoffs; I now believe that a record of 9-7 is more likely. That might be good enough to squeeze into the playoffs, if they are incredibly lucky, but I very much doubt it.

(Irrelevant stats: Each of the Bills' three losses so far this year has come to a team coming off a bye week, and two of those losses were to teams looking to win their first game of the year.)

I've never been a football fan to demand the head of the coach every time the team loses, but I'm now wondering if Gregg Williams simply isn't cut out to be an NFL head coach. I had thought, before the season started, that he was still on the upside of a learning curve, but so far this season I just don't see any "learning" going on. The same mistakes keep getting made, the same questionable decisions, the same lack of discipline on the team. This is a team that miscommunicates, especially on offense. This is a team whose offensive line last year plowed the road for a 1400-yard season by the starting running back, but who this year can't block at all for the exact same running back and, to add insult to injury, can't protect Drew Bledsoe one bit better than they did last year. This is a team with a good defense that is expected to play every game as if it's the 2000 Ravens defense, which they simply can't do.

What gets me, sports fans, is that the Bills keep getting shown by their opponents what they need to be doing, and they keep refusing to learn the lesson. Three weeks ago, when the Dolphins beat the Bills, they ran Ricky Williams 41 times. That's more than twice the number of times the Bills ran the ball yesterday. In only three of the Bills' games have they rushed the ball more than their opponent, and in only three of those games did they even rush the ball more than twenty times. The Bills simply aren't concentrating on running the ball, at all.

A common excuse for the Bills not running is that they're falling behind too often, so they have to throw, but I don't buy that. I remember watching a game the Steelers played five or six years ago, when Jerome Bettis was at the top of his form and in which the Steelers through turnovers and other goofs fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter. In that game, though, Steelers coach Bill Cowher kept his wits about him and kept pounding the ball in there. He based his offense on running the ball, his coaches drilled run-blocking into the line, and it paid off. That's why the Steelers almost always make the playoffs. Watching the Bills, though, I get the feeling that they run the ball once, and if they don't pick up nine yards, they abandon the run for the next eight plays.

Yesterday's game was the only time the Bills have lost by more than ten points, and it's the only time they've faced that ten point deficit before the fourth quarter, so I don't buy the idea that they have to throw to get back into it. A good coach makes adjustments; a good coach notices that Drew Bledsoe simply isn't comfortable with the flock of young receivers and journeymen they've surrounded him with this year, and game-plans accordingly. The pigheaded offensive scheming by Gregg Williams and by coordinator Kevin Gilbride has me wondering each week if I'm watching a Mike Martz-coached Rams game: "I don't care if they have nine DBs and only two linemen on the field, we're throwing the ball!" Ugh.

A word about Drew Bledsoe, since I suspect fans are going to start piling up on him. The Bills knew what they were getting when they got him: a guy with a terrific arm who relies on rhythm and protection, who's a good leader but can't single-handedly will a team back from the brink. I've never bought the bit that Bledsoe "can't win the big one", any more than I ever bought the idea that Jim Kelly couldn't win the big one. A lot of Bills fans are baffled at the way Bledsoe is playing after losing Peerless Price, but it's not just Price. After watching Bledsoe twice a year when he was with the Patriots, and now watching him with the Bills, I think it's not Peerless Price whom he misses, but Larry Centers.

Larry Centers is an odd guy: he's a running back by position, but his real value is as a receiver. He has more receptions than any running back in history, and more than just about all receivers, too, except for the really elite ones. He may be a Hall of Famer, on the basis of his receiving numbers. He's with New England now, but he played for the Bills the previous two years. Last year he had 43 receptions, and he was the main "safety valve" in the passing game, the guy who gets open for short yardage when the deeper receivers are both covered. Bledsoe has no such safety-valve player this year. None of the tight ends the Bills have now has emerged as such a threat, and the Bills' current fullback (Sam Gash) is more noted for his run-blocking than his receiving (which means, given the Bills' lack of intent towards the running game, that Gash's position and talents are doubly wasted. Why do I think this is a big deal? Because I remember how Bledsoe used to kill the Bills, every year when he was a Patriot, by constantly dumping passes off to tight end Ben Coates. Bledsoe-to-Coates was the combo that made Bledsoe a Buffalo-killer, and it really helped him last year. This year, he has no such outlet, so he has to stand in there while the pocket collapses, praying that one of his young and inexperienced receivers manages to get open or that Eric Moulds -- who sat out yesterday with a groin pull -- somehow saves the day by beating his inevitable double-team.

Oh, well, I could go on, but I won't. Maybe the Bills can get it together, but I'm not optimistic right now. What bothers me is that this is really the first time the Bills' results haven't matched up with my expectations based on the team's talent. I tend to be pretty realistic about the team, which is why I'm a frustrated fan now. This team is better on paper than they are on the field. Gregg Williams had better figure out how to even that deficit, or he'll be looking for a job next season.

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