Super Thoughts: Giants 21, Patriots 17

I'm thrilled to get to use this again:

Ahhhh, how sweet it is! Watching the Patriots lose just doesn't get old, folks. Nosiree Bob. Without further ado, some random thoughts on the game:

::  He's been retired and broadcasting for three or four years now, but I still want someone to take Rodney Harrison's knee out. What a goon he was as a player.

::  1st quarter tweet: "Mental errors by the Pats? But...but...I thought they were Gods of Football!!!"

Seriously, the Patriots looked sloppy early and they looked sloppy late. St. Tom giving up a safety on a panic throw to avoid a sack? Twelve men on the field? The Pats have a reputation for not playing that sloppily. I'm not sure the rep is as earned as it should be, but there it is. They put it back together, though, and played well for the second and third quarters, before getting sloppy again in the fourth, with Brady throwing the game's only interception (and only turnover, period) on an ill-advised, dumbass play and his receivers getting a bad case of the Drops.

:: I think that the best quarterbacks in football right now, in high-pressure situations, are most definitely Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (last year's flat performance in the Super Bowl notwithstanding, and the Steelers were actually very competitive in that game after digging a surprising early hole). St. Tom's pressure-QB reputation is, for my money, not well-earned. He lost Super Bowl XLVI, Super Bowl XLII, and the 2006 AFC Championship games, despite having the ball for the last minute of each of those games (and in one of those, he only needed a field goal). And even going back to his "big winning drives" in Super Bowls XXXVI and XXXVIII, well...those were drives in which he took over with the score tied, so unless he turns the ball over, the worst thing that happens is the game goes to overtime. I think that the Myth of St. Tom took a big hit last night.

:: Put it another way: Joe Montana never lost a single Super Bowl, much less two Super Bowls. Joe Montana drove his team ninety-two yards for the winning touchdown in Super Bowl XXIII (yes, he had two minutes and change to do it in, but so what? He got the job done), and he also produced two Super Bowl blowouts in games in which he was supposed to produce Super Bowl blowouts. St. Tom is a great quarterback and will be a well-deserved Hall of Fame player. But the discussion of St. Tom as the 'best ever quarterback' is, for me, over.

:: Continuing a theme: I don't think that the Patriots are going to fall apart as a team, but I do think that this year is probably St. Tom's last, best chance to win a Super Bowl. He's going to be another year older, and like I've said before, physical decline comes to everyone, and it's going to come to him -- especially now that he's going into his twelfth year as a starter, who has also played more than twenty post-season games. That's literally packing an extra season-and-one-third into his career. It takes its toll, and I think we'll start seeing that toll before long. Brady likes to talk about playing until he's 40, but I'd bet that if he does, he's playing someplace else, because the physical decline will have become undeniable to the point that Belichick either trades or cuts him after drafting his heir-apparent.

:: Interesting article along those same lines:

Dynasties always believe they can last forever, until they begin to crumble. And their greatest men and fiercest warriors — their Tom Bradys — always believe in their own excellence and its nearly immutable power to make things work out as they’re supposed to.

Until they are bested enough times to know better.

“We just didn’t make enough plays,” Brady said. “We all wish we could have done a little bit more. It comes down to one play at the end. If we make it, we’re world champions; if we don’t, we wish we were.”

Yes, but the fact is the Patriots had to have it come down to one miracle play. And the Giants, in not getting beaten by the long-shot throw, may have shown Sunday that the Patriots’ time is over. Super Bowls are incredibly difficult to get to, even for teams that have made five of the past 11.

:: No one will mention it much because they've got three titles to their credit, but this Super Bowl loss means that the Bills, Vikings, and Broncos have new company in the "four-time Super Bowl loser" club. Huzzah!!

:: Cris Collinsworth wasn't as annoying as I thought he might be. But I did find it odd that at the end of the Giants' last drive, when the Giants were trying to put up the go-ahead points without leaving too much time on the clock, they mentioned that they might want to get a first-down at the 1 without scoring and then just run the clock all the way down until they have to kick the field goal...Al Michaels and Collinsworth kept discussing this whole series without mentioning that the Pats lost to the Bills back in Week Three on an identical situation.

:: Random goofy fact: Only six teams have lost to the Bills during the regular season and still gone on to win the Super Bowl. (This year's Giants are not one of those.)

:: Another random goofy fact: the AFC East is 2-9 in Super Bowls against NFC East teams. Ouch.

:: On the commercials: As usual, I don't care and pay little attention. I use commercials for their intended purpose: going to the bathroom, getting food, writing, checking Facebook, et cetera. The only ones I watched were a few of the movie trailers (none of which looked all that good, except for The Avengers), a pretty sappy Toyota Camry commercial, and a Clint Eastwood commercial for Chrysler that ratcheted up the "America, YAY!" to 11 and seemed to also be saying, "Hey, remember that Camry commercial from before? F*** those people." (But here's a thought: the fact that such a grittily optimistic ad could be aired this year might say something about the mood of the country that might, in turn, be good news for a certain sitting President.)

:: On the halftime show: I liked it a lot. It was actually a show, and featured an artist who is still producing new material and who wasn't content to just do a quick "greatest hits" thing. I loved the goofy Egyptian panoply, and I started Tweeting a bunch of Egyptian and Roman-related pop culture quotes, such as "Give my regards to King Tut, asshole!" (from Stargate) and "If you wanna find all the cops, they're hangin' out in the donut shops" (by the Bangles). Still, it was a really good show by Madonna. Color me impressed!

That's about all...except for these, because really, I could look at scenes like this all day:

Ahhhh! Thanks, 2011 NFL! Next up, free agency and the Draft. Football never stops! It just slows down a bit.

Oh, Tom, Tom, Tom.... (Answers the first!)

So usually I wait until the second half of the month to start giving answers to "Ask Me Anything!" questions, but Roger has a couple that are time sensitive, pertaining as they do to the impending Super Bowl. So here they are:

Why do you hate Tom Brady so much?

Hoo boy. You know, I was all prepared with this answer. I was going to write about how I don't hate Tom Brady personally, because it's not like I know him or anything, and that more than anything else, my hatred for Brady is the "sports fan's hatred of the other guy". You know, it's how sports fans feel about that one guy who always seems to have your team's number, no matter what. It's like how Boston sports fans likely felt for years about Bucky Dent or Mookie Wilson.

But then, St. Tommy had to go and open his mouth at a Super Bowl press thing the other day, in the context of talking about how his father has made all kinds of sacrifices to follow his son's football career:

"He's been there every step of the way," Brady said of his dad. "Then I went to school a long ways from home, and he and my mom were there at every home football game that they could possibly be at and a lot of road games, too. And even when I started my pro career, he traveled to Buffalo. I don't know if you guys have ever been to the hotels in Buffalo -- they're not the nicest places in the world -- but he would travel to those."

Wow. Thanks for that, Tom.

Now, most of the folks I follow online – few of whom blog anymore, and most of whom are on Twitter, which makes me sad – are of the "Who cares what some football player thinks" camp, or the "Hey, he's just telling the truth, because Buffalo kind of sucks" camp, or a combination of both camps. This goes along with "Geez, Buffalo, do you gotta get so upset any time somebody says something mean about your city?" And those folks are right.

But still...yeah. I hear you, folks. I really do. But still: f*** Tom Brady.

Here's why: There was really no reason for it. He didn't need to say it. Buffalo wasn't part of the conversation in any way, until he cited it as an example of awful hardships his father has had to endure in the purpose of following his son's career. "Hey, he's come to Buffalo. That's a commitment!" And he said it on an enormous media stage.

Look, I am well aware that Buffalo isn't the nicest city in the world, or even the country, or even the state. I'm well aware that this city's warts are openly displayed for all to see. I'm well aware that this city continues to rust and crumble while we continually shoot ourselves in the foot, development-wise. But that doesn't mean that I should be happy to hear continued use of my city, my home, as a national short-hand for "crappy cesspool of a city" to which no one in their right mind would want to go unless it's for business and you're only going to be there for the shortest time possible.

Here's the bottom line: We get to say these things. Brady doesn't. At least, not for me. The "Brady is right and it shouldn't matter" crowd will have to bear with me if I'm not willing to say "Thank you, Mr Brady, may I have another?" on this one. Harumph!

There's also some rhetoric going around that this kind of thing – the impression our city makes on visiting athletes who are in town for a game – is part of what keeps star players from entertaining Buffalo as a possible spot for when they are free agents. To this I say, simply, nonsense. Look, I know that the view from the Kensington Expressway into downtown from the airport isn't terribly inspiring. But in my experience there's not a city in the world that doesn't have such a route, somewhere. I read things like this – "Buffalo's hotels aren't super nice and the town's nightlife isn't terribly exciting" – and I think, "Huh. Does Green Bay hear things like this?"

Probably not...and the reason why is glaringly obvious. Why don't star players avoid Green Bay like the plague and refuse to entertain the possibility of signing there? Because Green Bay has a team that wins. Buffalo does not. I guarantee that as long as the Bills are here, it won't matter how the city looks: if the team gets good again, players will be more willing to sign here.

So: Why do I hate Tom Brady? Because he's great and he kicks my team's ass constantly. Because he lives a ridiculously charmed life. Because as great as he clearly is, I still think he's overrated; he's never really produced a signature win and a huge moment that will live in sports lore forever, there's nothing he's ever done that makes me think, "Wow, I remember when Tom Brady did ____"; I tire of the man-crushes that many sports commentators have on the guy.

Here's a true story: I've always thought that NBC's Cris Collinsworth has been overly obsessive about Brady, and that he brings Brady into conversations entirely too often, whether the discussion involves the Patriots or not. I mentioned this once on Facebook, and another friend disagreed, saying that Collinsworth simply has a lot of respect for one of the game's best players. Fine. Except that during last year's Winter Olympics, Collinsworth at one point presented a profile piece he'd done on short-track speed skater Apollo Anton Ohno, after which he said to Bob Costas and those of us at home, "Apollo Anton Ohno really reminds me of Tom Brady."

GAHHH!!!

So there's why I hate Tom Brady. (Kinda sorta. I mean, I'm sure he loves his mother.)

Oh, and a prediction? I really don't like offering predictions, but I'll offer a hope: Giants 30, Patriots 16. Not only do I want Brady to lose, but I want him to lose fairly convincingly. I want his defeat to be large enough that no one can whitewash this game for him if he does lose. I don't think a blow-out is likely, but if Brady loses by 10-14 points and only puts up pedestrian numbers – say, 200 yards, 1 TD, 2 picks – it'll make me feel all kinds of warm and fuzzy inside. But I guess it's OK if he wins his fourth, tying him with Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. After all, neither one of those guys ever lost a Super Bowl.

And hey, folks, questions aren't exactly flying in the door yet, so Ask Me Anything!

Go team!

I don't really have a whole lot to say about football right now, except for a couple of random observations:

:: Thank God that Tebow-mania is over for a while.

:: Of course, if ending Tebow-mania comes at the price of seeing St. Tom lift another Lombardi trophy, then I'm not sure it's worth it.

:: Go Giants and Ravens.

:: Note to future NFL teams: don't win any more than 14 games in the regular season. Six teams have won 15 or more games, and of those, only the first two -- the 1984 49ers and the 1985 Bears -- won the Super Bowl. Of the others, only the 2007 Patriots even made the Super Bowl, and they lost. The other three -- 1998 Vikings, 2004 Steelers, 2011 Packers -- didn't even get there.

That's about it. Two more chances for someone to end St. Tom's season with a loss. Let's go!

Six and Ten

Well, when the NFL season began, I predicted a finish of 7-9 for the Buffalo Bills. They seemed intent on proving me wrong, jumping out to a 5-2 record, with impressive come-from-behind victories and finally beating the New England Patriots for the first time since 2003. But then, the wheels well and truly came off the season, and they finished 6-10. They were one game worse than I figured, so that's not too bad a job of prognosticating on my part, huzzah! But why does it feel as crappy as it does?

Well, it's not just what happens but how it happens. I figured the Bills would just kind of limp through the season, looking a bit better than last year, when they were in a lot of close losses on their way to 4-12. I figured they'd win two and lose three, win one and lose two, win another two and lose another three, and go in that way to 7-9. Instead they opened 5-2, looked great doing so, and then they promptly went on a losing binge where they got blown out most weeks and going 1-8 the rest of the way. Ouch.

Also, before the season began, it was expected that the defense would improve but the offense would struggle. Instead it was the offense that was the bright point (comparatively speaking). The defense actually got worse, shockingly. They got decent to promising play from their rookies (especially top pick Marcel Dareus), but it was the complete failure of the second-year guys, taken a year ago, to step up which really sealed their fates. Torrell Troup was constantly hurt. Arthur Moats and Alex Carrington never did anything consistently. Danny Batten, whom a lot of fans thought showed promise in two training camps, showed no promise at all in the regular season. The defense regressed, which means that the next draft -- yeah, here we are, talking draft again -- needs to be heavily skewed to defense. Ugh!

Everybody knows that the Bills desperately need to improve at outside linebacker. Their pass rush was horrible this year, and regular readers will know from my rants for years in this space that pass rush has not been a strong suit for this team since Bruce Smith was here. Seriously, though, the outside linebackers here are disastrous -- no pressure and constantly getting burned by tight ends. And if it sounds like I'm exaggerating when I say that the Bills have not been able to cover tight ends for fifteen years, well, think back to Bills-Patriots games back in the late 90s, when the Bills would put the Pats in third-and-long situations all day, only to have Drew Bledsoe throw first-down passes to Ben Coates. Ugh, again!

So there it is. I could say more...CJ Spiller finally showed promise when he got on the field, so maybe his pick last year wasn't a complete disaster. (I still think they should have taken Brian Bulaga.) Stupid penalties aside, they need to get Stevie Johnson extended so he stays here. At some point they need to think quarterback-of-the-future (not now, though, unless someone inexplicably tumbles to the Bills' likely draft spot in the seven through nine range).

I do get the feeling that the Bills could be a threat next year if they add a few of the right key players. Problem is, I seem to say that every year, don't I? Ugh the third!

Random thoughts on the rest of the NFL:

::  I don't see the Patriots winning the Super Bowl. Their defense is awful, and their offense, while prolific, is one-dimensional. They have very little running game, and their passing game is one receiver and two tight ends. Yeah, Brady is all that and an entire pallet of Doritos, but if the Pats get to the Super Bowl, their most likely opposition is either Green Bay or New Orleans, two teams which can answer New England, score for score. And New England will have to get past two better defenses than they usually face to get to the Super Bowl, so Brady might get knocked around a bit -- and he's not a guy who responds well to getting knocked around. I've said it before, but if I'm coaching a football team in the Super Bowl and it's two minutes left and I only have one timeout left and I'm starting this drive on my own ten yard line and I'm down four point so I have to score a TD or lose, I don't want Tom Brady as my quarterback.

::  When picking games, here are some factoids to remember. In the last twenty NFL seasons, only three Super Bowls have featured both conferences' top seeds. Additionally, over the same span, the top seeds of both conferences are only 18 for 40 in reaching the Super Bowl, with AFC top seeds missing the Super Bowl 13 our of 20 times. And of the last twenty Super Bowl champions, only nine have been top seeds in their conference. So if you must bet on the top seed, you're better off betting on Green Bay than New England.

::  The Colts are going to go from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck. Wow. What timing on the crappy season, eh? As for Manning, I get into discussions with friends as to whether I'd trade for him. I would not, unless it's a pretty low draft pick...no way I give up a 1st or a 2nd for him. Maybe not even a 3rd. Manning is old (he'll be 36 when the next season starts), and he's coming off a season lost to a neck injury. And if he came to Buffalo, he'd get hit more than he's accustomed to and he'd be playing outside. At best, a Manning trade simply delays the inevitable drafting of a QB of the future. I love Manning as much as anyone, but I wouldn't roll the dice on him right now.

::  Having lived through the 1999 Bills, I am not at all convinced that Tim Tebow is the Real Deal in Denver. Yes, teams really do win because of defense, and Denver has a pretty good one. Plus, I must admit, I find Tebow's evangelism highly obnoxious, and I don't really care that the Super Bowl ad he did last year for the James Dobson folks was all nice and warm and fuzzy -- using kittens and puppies in an ad for James Dobson is still advertising for James Dobson. Sorry, but there it is.

::  Oh, and finally: Aaron Maybin. During the year there was a lot of kvetching over the Jets' signing of Maybin and their 'resuscitation of his career', which was much ballyhooed round these parts. It was seen by many as another sign of the Bills picking the wrong player, and then failing to get what they could out of a player who could still be productive. Well, Maybin had six sacks at one point...but then, in his last four games, he posted only two tackles and zero sacks, to finish with the same six sacks. Big whoop. And I saw several of Maybin's sacks, and they're all coverage sacks, which he got by running as fast as he could around guys while the Jets' secondary -- one of the best in football -- kept opposing receivers bottled up. I did not see some great reawakening of a possibly dominant player in Maybin; nor did I even see some brilliant bit of coaching that squeezed production out of a guy given up for dead. These are the same coaches who couldn't make Vernon Gholston work, the same coaches who were caught on video tripping opposing players as they ran the sidelines a year ago, and the same coaches who were led by a guy who guaranteed a Super Bowl win before failing to even make the playoffs. The Bills have made a lot of dumb personnel decisions over the years, picking the wrong guys and letting the wrong guys go and such. Picking Maybin was a bad move. Letting him go was not.

::  Oh, a Super Bowl pick? Uh...Green Bay over Baltimore. I think.

Titans 23, Bills 17

What it feels like to be a Bills fan these days, originally uploaded by Jaquandor.

Well, I don't know if the Buffalo Bills are still "mathematically" alive for the playoffs or not, but it really doesn't matter, because there is zero real chance they could get there. They'd have to win out now just to finish 9-7. Their play this last month, during which they have now lost five straight, has been disastrous.

The game was blacked out here at home, so I didn't watch it. All I have to go on is stuff I read online, via Twitter and some other places.

For instance, I read that Ryan Fitzpatrick was wildly off target again, missing a lot of open throws. I guess that's bad, but then I look at his stats from the game -- 29 of 46, 288 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT -- and I think, "You know, if my quarterback is completing over sixty percent of his passes and averaging ten yards for every completion and he's not throwing any picks, then maybe he's not really the reason the team lost.

The reason? The defense apparently couldn't stop anybody today, which has been the trend for weeks now. They contained the Titans' passing game, but got lit up by the running back, as usual. There were apparently some questionable tactical decisions by the Bills' coaches -- punting in Tennessee territory, for one thing -- but I don't know much about those.

This team really needs to do two things in the offseason: make sure all the good players are under contract, and then bring in a lot more talent. And yes, it's all about the offseason up here in Buffalo. We're good at talking about the offseason. Hell, to look at it one way, the Bills are in the midst of a twelve-year-and-counting offseason.

Sigh.

Dolphins 35, Bills 8

What it feels like to be a Bills fan these days, originally uploaded by Jaquandor.

Yeesh. The Bills don't mess around with small things, like replacing brake pads or putting a new muffler on. No, when things go wrong for the Bills, we're talking "all four wheels fall off at the same time the engine throws two rods" bad. This is starting to spiral out of control.

:: Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing poorly. This is a combination of a number of things. First, it must be admitted, he's not the most physically talented guy under center in the NFL. He's good, but he's not that good.

Second, he's not throwing to that great a group of receivers. We have to admit this. Every week now we're seeing large numbers of passes that really should be completions either being missed by the receivers or, worse, bouncing off receivers and into the arms of defenders (this happened twice today). Now, maybe he could do better at putting the passes right on the numbers, but he does put the ball where they could catch it. And they don't.

Third, the Bills, either by design or not, have little to no deep passing game. This means that defenders can come up nice and close to the line of scrimmage.

Fourth, the offensive line has sustained so many injuries that now guys are being moved all over the place in an effort to just field a line of any kind, at all. As a result, blitzes are getting through with ease, forcing Fitz to throw the ball before he's ready.

All of this adds up to Fitzpatrick having a very rough time of it.

:: The afore-mentioned offensive line problems are making the running game a lot less effective.

:: On defense? They're just playing badly. Across the board. Once again, the Bills generate no pass rush, and they don't cover very well. That is a foolproof recipe for continued disaster. I remain convinced that the Bills' primary need in the draft needs to be the very best pass rusher available when they pick, whether that's a defensive end or a linebacker.

Other than that...the game looked awful, and the Bills are on the road yet again next week to face the Jets, who thumped them two weeks ago at home. Ugh!

Oh well, enough of that.

Sentential Links #268

Time for linkage....

:: Anno's Journey by Mitsumasa Anno is one of my most favourite wordless books. It is a series of pictures that follows the journey of our hero Anno (on his horse) as he travels across Europe: (Wow. I need a copy of this.)

:: Still, he always was proud of growing up in Albany, and he summered in the county, in Rensselaerville, and I liked that. l’d hoped that he would have had a chance to enjoy his retirement. But, true to his seemingly contrarian nature, he didn’t have that chance. (I confess to not having been a huge fan of Andy Rooney, but he IS certainly a good poster-child for working until you simply can't anymore.)

:: Because we have a history of breast cancer on both sides of our family, getting a mammogram this morning felt like a step toward acknowledging my own mortality. In my mind, the girls -- and my sister's -- are like ticking time bombs. Very small ones, in my case, but dangerous nonetheless. And I hate that. (What gives me pause in Kerry's post – beside the fear for her own kids and her sister's – is that she relates finding out about her mom's first occurrence of cancer, which came right about when I first knew her and her big sister. I never had any idea their family was pretty much dealing with cancer scares the whole time I knew them. That scares me, for some reason.)

:: I bought a farm. I bought a farm at 28, with no savings, poor credit, and no experience with negotiating beyond livestock tailgate parties. I want you to know that if this is something you want as bad as I did, you can do it too. Do not let ANYONE tell you otherwise. Those naysayers are full of more horseshit then my chickens. 

:: Is it possible, then, that those proponents of gay marriage looking for their hypocrite-of-the-week could look elsewhere? Because, and I am not going to say this terribly often, this time Kim Kardashian deserves better treatment. (On the one hand, I'm not sure I buy MGK's argument here. On the other...I don't really care all that much. I only link it because it's kind of interesting.)

That's about it for this week. (Not because blogging suddenly sucked this week, but just that I'm pressed for time as I'm gathering the links as I'm doing this. More next week!)

Bills 23, Redskins 0

The Buffalo Bills returned to the field today, for their annual regular season game in Toronto. Their opponent was the Washington Redskins. General reaction to the games in Toronto has ranged from "Well, OK, if it helps the team make enough money to stay here" -- at best -- to "This is a giant bowl of suck", at worst. This was the Bills' fourth appearance in Toronto in the regular season, and they went into today's game looking for their first win up there.

Toronto, being an enormous city, is not really seen as embracing the Bills, and the crowds at the Rogers Centre (the stadium originally known as Skydome) are usually either really quiet or they've openly rooted for the other team. There's been a lot of comment on why this may be, but after hearing today's crowd actually being fairly loud as the game went on, I'm wondering if the most important factor in the Canadian crowd not really warming to the Bills was that the Bills in those games were dull, boring, and crappy teams. I know that I don't do a lot of cheering for crappy teams.

But today the Bills were pretty dominant, and the score frankly could have been even more lopsided than the final 23-0. The offense sputtered at times, but for the most part looked pretty good; Fred Jackson, as usual, showed up playing as though somebody had said something mean about his mother. Ryan Fitzpatrick -- fresh off a big contract extension -- was his usual self: mostly accurate with a couple of bad throws. The offensive line, which is banged up right now with one starter out and his backup out, generally provided excellent blocking.

The real story today, though, was the defense, which has been giving up lots of points and yards, and which hasn't been generating any pass rush. Until today, when they sacked Washington quarterback John Beck nine times, and handed Washington coach Mike Shanahan the first shutout of his entire NFL career. I've never been a big fan of Shanahan's; I think that a lot of his reputation rests upon his first two seasons with the Broncos, when he won the Super Bowl both years, with a pretty good defense, a Hall-of-Fame quarterback in John Elway, and a running back in Terrell Davis whom I think was on his own way to being one of the greatest running backs of all time until his career ended due to injury a couple of years later.

So the Bills are now 5-2, heading into a big match-up with the Jets next week. Go Bills!

A few other football notes:

::  The Steelers knocked off the Patriots. Any time the Pats lose is a good day.

::  The Dolphins are making me increasingly nervous. Come on, Fins! Get some victories, and lose out on the Draw of the Luck!

::  I hate to go all Gregg Easterbrook, but the Football Gods certainly seem to have exacted penance from the Saints for their 62-point game against the Colts last week by having them lose to the lowly Rams. (Who are now behind the Dolphins for the Draw of the Luck.)

::  I find Tim Tebow's constant public praying obnoxious. I just do. Sue me.

That's about it. Go Bills -- beat the Jets!

The Ball of the Foot

Just because the Bills didn't play doesn't mean that the NFL grinds to a halt, no no no! So, a few thoughts on stuff that transpired yesterday:

::  The Saints beat the Colts 62-7. I had a spirited debate with a friend on Facebook about this, with my position being that hanging 62 points on someone is just a jerk move (unless, of course, they are hanging 59 on you). I'm generally of the belief that when you go up by, say, 40 points, you start pulling starters and having your offense consist of runs up the middle, running the clock down all the way between each play. And you instruct your defensive players that in the event they recover a turnover, they fall down or go out of bounds with it. The final points scored last night were scored by a Saints DB who ran back an interception for a touchdown. There's no reason for that. Not even your desire to get a highlight on ESPN, because even if there is a highlight, the commentary will be, "And check out this pathetic play to cap off a ridiculous night of crappy football."

::  The Chiefs beat the Raiders 28-0. That sounds impressive, but the game featured some staggeringly awful quarterbacking, across the board. Oakland played two quarterbacks -- Carson Palmet and Kyle Boller -- who threw three interceptions each, and Kansas City's Matt Cassel threw in two picks of his own. And not a single one of those quarterbacks threw a touchdown pass. So all the QBs on the field in the Chiefs-Raiders game produced the following line: 30 completions in 65 attempts for 338 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. This calculates to a combined passer rating of 22.6. (The NFL's complex passer rating formula produces a rating of 39.6 for a QB whose every pass is incomplete. To post a rating less than that requires some really bad play indeed.)

::  The Chiefs have now won three games, after looking like the league's worst team in the first few weeks. Three wins very likely takes them out of the running for the first overall pick in the 2012 draft (who will probably be Andrew Luck). So, as of right now, here are the leading contenders for the Draw of the Luck:

Dolphins (0-7)

Colts (0-7)

Rams (0-6)

Vikings (1-6)

Cardinals (1-5)

Jaguars (1-5)

I, of course, am rooting for the Dolphins to win at least three games this year, so they can move out of the Top Pick position and thus lose the Draw of the Luck. I want no part of Andrew Luck being in the same division as the Bills. Interestingly, though, maybe the Colts and Rams finish ahead of the Dolphins but pick for defense, letting Luck drop to the Dolphins at number three! Oh noes!!

::  This preseason the Bills cut their 2009 first round draft pick, Aaron Maybin, whom they took with the 11th overall pick that year. Maybin sucked. He sucked, sucked, sucked, sucked, sucked for the Bills. He was incapable of doing anything on the field. He was too small to be effective against the run...and he showed up to this year's training camp even smaller. So the Bills ditched him, much to the pleasure of all Bills fans.

But now he's signed with the Jets, and in four games so far, he has three sacks and three forced fumbles, which has predictably led to a lot of hand-wringing and kvetching as to how it could possibly be that Maybin is producing now. Did he not work hard in Buffalo? Did he try to tank his career here on purpose? Is he playing for a brilliant coaching staff now that can figure out how to use him and teach him stuff? This was a topic of discussion all day on WGR's football talk shows, with the common thread being, "Geez, did the Bills give up on him too early?"

Personally, I don't think so. The Jets only use Maybin on obvious passing downs, and then, only as a pass rusher. That's it. He's never asked to play the run, nor is he given any responsibilities to help cover tight ends. So why is he suddenly getting sacks? Well, I saw his one sack of the Chargers' Philip Rivers yesterday, and it was a textbook coverage sack. And yet, not one second of Maybin discussion I heard on the radio today mentioned this. (His sack of Joe Flacco a couple weeks ago was also a coverage sack, while his sack of Andy Dalton before that was simply a lineman not blocking him at all.) Everyone is saying, "Wow, is Maybin finally showing his talent?" Yes and no. His talent is as a speed rusher. That's it. He runs as fast as he can in the general direction of the quarterback. He doesn't make any stunning moves or use his strength; all he has is speed. So why is it working?

Well, I submit that it's "working" because (a) Maybin is only on the field a few times a game, so he is never winded, and (b) the Jets have an amazing secondary that can actually cover opposing receivers long enough for Maybin to get to the quarterback. That's it. Maybin has landed in a situation that pretty much offers the only scenario under which he could possibly have any success. How long will it last? We'll see. If the Jets' secondary gets banged up and receivers are able to get open more against them, then Maybin's effectiveness will certainly drop. Ditto if the Jets ever actually play him for a significant number of snaps per game. I haven't seen nearly enough of Maybin's "talent" to conclude that the Bills may have lost a good player.

::  Still on the subject of the Jets-Chargers game, I think that entrusting the Chargers to Norv Turner may turn out to be the greatest single waste of a talented roster in NFL history. The Chargers just don't look that good to me, and their two-minute drill was a joke.

::  Back to the Colts: I seem to be alone in thinking this, but this team is so bad that I don't even think that a healthy Peyton Manning would be making that much of a difference. Manning has had a great career, but he's not Godlike, and I don't think that a return by Manning to the team next year with the same personnel and coaching staff results in anything more than a 6-10 season. The Colts' defense is awful, their running game has been suspect for years, their offensive line isn't playing well, and none of that has to do with QB play. And there's the fact, unmentioned by Manning's fans, that he's getting old. Assuming he's out this entire season, when he returns in 2012, he'll be 36 and entering his 14th NFL season. Add in 19 career playoff games, Manning has played the equivalent of 14 seasons already. Physical decline is going to happen sooner or later, and his neck injury may be a symptom of that. Peyton Manning's return, in my view, will do nothing to change the fact that the Colts need to start thinking about the dreaded rebuilding process, or the fact that Peyton Manning's career is inexorably on the down side.

That's about it. Next week, the Bills go to Toronto to take on the Redskins!

Giants 27, Bills 24

Oh well. Can't win 'em all.

What's pretty cool this year is that, even with the Bills having lost two of their last three, both losses were by three points, and both games felt like what they were: games the Bills most certainly could have won. Even close losses in recent years were "ho hum" affairs. The Bills' two losses thus far have still been entertaining, fun games to watch.

But yeesh, without a few goof-ups, they very likely win this one!

Drayon Florence got flagged for pass interference three times, two of which within minutes of each other in the fourth quarter. That sucked. What also sucked were Ryan Fitzpatrick's two interceptions, both of which came on maddeningly underthrown passes to Stevie Johnson. He had to put the passes over Stevie's shoulder, but instead he didn't put enough on either pass, and two drives died near the goal line. Ugh!

The defense got shredded for...oh, a lot of yards. That's been happening a lot, and this time they didn't compensate for that with any takeaways. I'm not really worried about the defense, though. The winning is fun and very welcome -- the more a young team wins, the better, because it helps breed that "winning culture" that's so important -- but this year is, for me, mainly about developing a lot of young players. Yes, they're giving up a lot of yards, but I get more of a sense of potential in this team than in any Bills team of recently dolorous years.

Let's see, what else? Phil Simms is a terrible color commentator. He just drove me crazy, constantly saying things like "They need to run here!" and then say, "Oh, I'm wrong", when the pass instead. At one point he called linebacker Arthur Moats "Eric". Early in the game, he whined a little about how he doesn't know the names of any of the Bills, but later on, he held forth in expert fashion about the recent history of the Buffalo Bills. Which is it, Phil?

And that's about it. I didn't watch any football other than the Bills game this week, so that's about it. Next week, our lovely football fan gets a break from being pied as the Bills are on their bye week. After that, they go to Toronto to take on the mighty Redskins. Last time the Bills played Rex Grossman, they got shredded in Chicago during the Bears' Super Bowl season. I have a feeling things will be a bit different this time!

Bills 31, Eagles 24

Wow, the Eagles appear to be a slowly-evolving train wreck. After this loss, they're 1-4, which is rather shocking considering the free-agent money they slathered around during the offseason. It appeared at the time that they were looking to buy themselves a Super Bowl championship; now they're in a desperate spot where they almost need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. Wow. What a disaster.

And thing is, they don't look bad. The Eagles -- whom I've always rather liked, despite the presence of Michael Vick, who has a long way to go before I remotely consider forgiveness for his dog-fight ring -- make a lot of big plays, and they do a lot of great things on the field. Problem is, they tend to make ridiculously huge mistakes. It's really something to behold. I've never seen a team so bound-and-determined to shoot itself in the foot as this one.

The best example came at the very end of the game, when the Bills were clinging to a seven point lead. They faced fourth-and-one just past midfield, and they lined up as if they were going to go for it. This, however, was an old ploy, which I've never seen work. The offense lines up and everyone stays as still as a frozen rock as the quarterback goes through a hard snap count. The hope is that somebody on the defensive line will be stupid and jump before a snap of the ball happens, thus committing an off-sides penalty and giving the offensive team a free first down. This was what the Bills were doing. The color commentator on teevee actually said that's what the Bills were doing. It was so obvious. Everybody watching the game, either in person or on teevee, knew that this was what the Bills were doing. I've seen this tactic many, many times in my years of watching football, and I've never once seen it work.

Until today. One of the Eagles jumped, refs threw the flag, Bills got a first down, and they ran out the clock. Game over. Wow. The replays showed Philly coach Andy Reid's head nearly exploding when he saw his guy jump. But ultimately, it's his fault, isn't it? The Eagles are very talented...but they appear to have almost no discipline. And it's killing them.

(BTW, everyone on teevee was harping on Vick's four interceptions. That's bad, but as I saw it, two of those weren't even his fault -- they were balls his receiver was able to get hands on, but the ball ended up being bobbled about and deflected into the hands of Bills defenders. I don't have any idea how to change this, but it's always struck me as mildly unfair that those kinds of picks get charged against the quarterback's stats. I know how the NFL officially scores it, but as far as I'm concerned, Vick had two picks, not four. And two of his receivers had "Contact-ball Interceptions". Or whatever you want to call it.)

As for the Bills, they are 4-1, huzzah! They're shaping up as a team that needs to score lots of points, though, because the defense can't stop anybody. Maybe that will change a bit. I hope so, anyway -- but at least for today, there were a lot of big plays made by young members of the Bills' D, so maybe those guys grow and become more consistent at making plays. Alex Carrington, Kelvin Sheppard, and Reggie Corner all made big plays today -- or they made something happen that allowed George Wilson to make one of his several big plays. Quite a game, although I would like to see the defense overall become better at forcing punts.

Oh, and I'm sure he won't stay in the doghouse for too long, but linebacker Danny Batten made the most blatant leading-with-the-helmet hit on Michael Vick that I've ever seen. That one was so cut-and-dried that nobody with a pulse could possibly deny it. If not for the Eagles' defensive lineman who jumped later on and cemented the victory for the Bills, Batten's hit would have been the dumbest penalty of the day. It may well be the single stupidest penalty I've ever seen any Bills player commit, ever. And I remember Andre Reed's throwing of his helmet in Super Bowl XXVI.

What else to say? Hmmmm...Fred Jackson continues to run like a man possessed, a fact which the Bills would have done well to remember on one drive early in the fourth quarter, when their lead had fallen to ten points and they really needed to move the chains or, failing that, at least grind a bit of clock. Instead they threw three incompletions, going three-and-out and running insignificant time off. Ugh! And one of my Facebook friends pointed out that the Bills often seem to end halves of games with at least one timeout left. That speaks to much better discipline under Chan Gailey than the Bills had under their previous coaching regimes.

Next week, the Bills are on the road to play the Giants. Then they have their bye week. Go Bills!

A couple other random football notes:

::  I thought that the Jets were guaranteed to be awesome? Because they aren't.

::  I hate having to do this, but I now must root for the Dolphins. I do not want them ending up with the top pick in the NFL Draft. I've had to put up with being in the same division as Tom Brady for ten-plus years; just as his career is starting to enter its twilight, I do not want to have to start putting up with Andrew Luck for a similar period. So come on, Chiefs, Colts, or Vikings! Win the Draw of the Luck!

::  But how sick would it be if the Colts get him, and go from the Peyton Manning era to the Andrew Luck era? Aieee!!!

OK, that's about it. What a fun football season thus far!

Bengals 23, Bills 20

Oh well.




I don't have a whole lot to say about this game. The Bills weren't able to generate consistent offense, which is the major reason they lost; they let the Bengals hang around and hang around and it eventually cost them. It happens...especially when you're not quite as good a team as folks may have been supposing. The Bengals have a pretty good defense, and it gave the Bills fits for most of the day. Tight end Scott Chandler wasn't much of a factor at all, Ryan Fitzpatrick faced heavier pass rush than he's seen all year, and the running game had flashes but never got into rhythm. Couple that with the Bills' typical misfiring in the first quarter and with the officials either making -- or not making -- a pretty interesting number of calls that either favored the Bengals or penalized the Bills, and you have...a loss.

I'm not one to blame the refs, but they really do play a role, and there were a couple of times when a correct call would have either sustained a Bills drive or ended a Cincinnati one. Does this mean they would have won, with the right calls? Of course not. Maybe if the Stevie Johnson catch is ruled a catch and the Bills get a first down, Fitz throws an interception on the very next play. We'll never know...but the Bills didn't get that chance, and that sucks. I've never totally bought into the notion that "Good teams make their own breaks"; no matter how good you are, there will be times when luck is just going to plain screw you.

On the flip side of that, I also disagree with the notion that good teams overcome bad things that happen, and that therefore the fact that the Bills didn't indicates something. I've noticed a tendency among football folks, commentators and fans alike, to assume that whenever a team does something, it's because they're good enough to do it; and the reverse: that if a team doesn't do something it needs to do, it's because they're not good enough to do it. The problem here is simple: it fails to account for the fact that the other team exists. Just because your team doesn't get the first down, or score the points, or even win the game does not always mean that they're not good enough to have done so. There seems to be way too much reading-of-the-tea-leaves in football these days.

But yeesh, the Bills' defense needs some help. They've got a few good players -- Kyle Williams, Bryan Scott, rookie Marcel Dareus -- but somebody on the linebacking corps really needs to step up. And Leodis McKelvin is teetering on the brink of "bust" status.

What really stinks is that I was going to try to figure out how to make my pie-faced football fan's shirt tiger-striped. Oh well! Next up: the Eagles, who won't be easy. At all.

Bills 34, Patriots 31

I really didn't think I'd get to post this. I didn't want to jinx it, so I didn't create the cartoon until the final score was recorded and in the books and the players were in the locker rooms. But, at long, long last, here it is:

Oh my, what a game! The Bills spotted the Patriots a 21-0 lead before they came roaring back, getting the jitters out and making it 21-10 before halftime. Then they made it 21-17 in the third, and when the fourth quarter dawned, it was Pats 24, Bills 17. Then the Bills put up 17 points to the Pats' 7 in that quarter, and that's all she wrote.

Much has been made in these parts of the Bills' losing streak to the Pats. The Bills had lost fifteen consecutive games to the Pats, dating back to September 2003. Here's my blog post from that game. My, how much water is under the bridge! George W. Bush was President. The Iraq War was about six months old. Unless you were unusually well-versed in Illinois state politics, you had no idea at all who Barack Obama was.

Little Quinn would not be born for nearly twelve months. We'd been living in Buffalo again (after our Syracuse winter) for five months. I hadn't met a single other Buffalo blogger. The Daughter was four and was starting pre-school. The week after that game, The Wife and I went to see the hot new movie, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. We were still a few months from the theatrical release of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, and I was starting to despair of ever finding a job: my first interview at The Store was still three months away. And while I'm honestly not sure, I think I had yet to reveal in this space my unhealthy obsession with overalls.

As for football stuff that's happened since the last time the Bills walked away from the Pats with a victory? Well, the Buccaneers were the defending Super Bowl champions. Aaron Rodgers had yet to start his first game at Cal. The Bills' head coach when they last beat the Pats was Gregg Williams; since then, Mike Mularkey and Dick Jauron would walk the sidelines before Chan Gailey. The Bills' starting quarterback that day was Drew Bledsoe; since then, we've had the JP Losman and the Trent Edwards eras before finally arriving at Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Yeah, it's been a while.

We were discussing this matchup at work the other day, a few friends and I, and I said, "I don't want that one win back in '03 to be the only time the Bills ever beat Brady. And I don't want to not beat him until he's 38 and clearly in physical decline. I want to beat him now." Well, I got my wish. Hmmm...let me try that again. "I don't want to write a publishable book when I'm 67 years old, I want to write one now!" Huh, I think my space-opera-in-progress just got better!

Some thoughts from the game:

::  Brady piled up big numbers, along with Wes Welker. So what? The Pats' defense looks awful. They've been sliced-and-diced three weeks in a row now, and they're only 2-1 because their offense is really good. Well, take it from a guy who remembers the Bills' glory days, Pats fans: awesome offense that scores a lot plus crappy defense that stops nobody equals somebody else holding the Lombardi trophy.

::  The Bills' defensive game plan appears to have been, "Let Welker get his catches, just don't let him break a giant gain, and contain everybody else." That's pretty much what they did. Aside from their tight end, nobody other than Welker really stepped up for the Pats. They might want to look into that, because if the Pats think that Brady's going to be putting up 400 yards a game all season, they're deluded. Defenses are suffering now, all over the NFL, but they're going to settle in sooner or later, as offensive players get dinged up and as defensive guys find their chemistry after an abbreviated preseason with no offseason workouts.

::  I really hope that since the Bills are doing well, CBS will decide that their games deserve an announcer upgrade. Marv Albert isn't that good anymore, but Rich Gannon is awful. At one point, the Pats were lining up with first-and-goal, and he said -- and I am not making this up -- "Well, the Patriots have options here. They can either throw it or run it." And it was funny to see his reactions to Tom Brady's first two interceptions, as he made the case both times that they weren't really St. Tom's fault. This led me to comment on Twitter, "Brady could literally hand to ball to a defender and Gannon would blame Brady's RB for not being there for the handoff". Of course, after picks three and four -- with the fourth one being run back for a TD -- Gannon just didn't talk at all. I guess he can't decide what to say when something happens that is outside of his preferred narrative (in this case, the Godlike status of St. Tom the Overrated).

::  By the way, St. Tom sure showed a lot of heart on Drayton Florence's pick-six, didn't he? He just kind of jogged toward him but made no effort whatsoever to actually knock him out of bounds and maybe, just maybe, prevent him from scoring.

::  I love comebacks, but I wish the Bills would figure out how to play well in the first quarter too.

::  The Bills still need to improve on the pass rush. Their run defense has improved greatly, but the pass D still needs some help from the front seven to rush the passes.

::  The Bills' offensive line, which had fans terrified during preseason, gave up zero sacks and largely played very well in pass protection and in a fairly productive running game.

Next week, the Bills are at Cincinnati, which may be an interesting game. The Bills and Bengals don't play every year, so the streak doesn't include nearly as many games as the Bills' skid against the Patriots, but the Bengals have not beaten the Bills since the two teams met in the AFC Championship Game after the 1988 season. Last year, the Bills trailed the Bengals by 17 before beating them by 18. Giddyup!

Bills 38, Raiders 35

Wow, what a game! It very nearly ended up as a Bills loss, but alas for our lovely Raiders fan....

This game was one of those wonderful heart-stoppers that are so fun to watch...fun and maddening, as you watch each team drive home the killing stroke only to allow the opponent to get back up and keep fighting. This was a game that validates that old chestnut of football commentary: "I think the last team to score might win!"

The Bills looked bad for most of the first half, which after two games might well be shaping up as a pattern. Poor running defense combined with a Ryan Fitzpatrick interception led to the Raiders taking a 21-3 lead into halftime (would have been 21-6, had the Raiders not blocked a Bills field goal as time expired). But in the second half, the Bills came right back, scoring 21 straight points for a 24-21 lead. Then the Raiders made it 28-24. Then the Bills made it 31-28. Then the Raiders made it 35-31. And then the Bills, with fifteen seconds or so left, made it 38-35. And then the Raiders put up a Hail Mary as the clock expired, which came down in a crowd of players; luckily it was a Bill (rookie Da'Norris Searcy) who made the catch, securing the win.

It was a game of huge offensive plays on both sides, with some amazing catches. It was also a game of colossal errors for the Raiders, who seemed to commit penalty after penalty at times.

Random thoughts about the game:

::  Some folks are saying things on Twitter like "The Bills are actually fun to watch again!" But for my money, they started getting fun to watch again last year. They seem to have the same kind of approach to the game with a bit more experience and a bit more talent. I still think they're a way off from being a consistent winner, but I do not think they're several years off, anymore. But last year, for the most part they were usually entertaining and they teased fans a lot before losing because they simply didn't have enough talent. Late in the year, injuries took their toll so they ended up closing the year with a couple of blowout losses, but for the most part, they were a calm, collected, never-quit-fighting team last year too. It's just that this year they're better. How much better? Well, in the words of Chris Berman, "That's why they play the games."

::  Stevie Johnson continues to be a beast who lays it all out on the field, every time. The Bills can not let him get to the free agent market after the season. Come on, guys -- extend him already! (I have a feeling they will at some point. They are already talking with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and they seem to be taking a "talk to one guy at a time" approach to this stuff.)

::  Fred Jackson is just astonishing. He just is. Everybody knows it. But CJ Spiller seems to be settling in and figuring things out, too. I'm thrilled to have this one-two-punch at running back.

::  I felt kind of bad for the Raiders when they took an Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty after the Bills scored a touchdown, and their coach (Hue Jackson) threw the challenge flag. Yes, he's a head coach, so he should know that the NFL is automatically reviewing all scoring plays now, which makes those plays "unchallengable". But still, that's a brand new rule and he's a rookie head coach, so...well, sucks to be him. I sympathize. (But not much. It's still football, folks!)

::  But also on the topic of Raiders and penalties, I'm no expert, but there were an awful lot of Raider hits on Ryan Fitzpatrick that really looked to me like late hits/roughing the passer's. All went uncalled. He took quite a few pops after the ball had been out of his hands for almost an entire 'Mississippi'.

::  On the go-ahead touchdown from Fitzpatrick to David Nelson, wow...I can't believe the Raiders let somebody get that wide open. Seriously, there were about five yards of space on either side of Nelson before you saw a Raider. Ouch. Apparently their defensive plan for that play relied on getting a sack, because they either didn't try coverage or they blew the coverage. Yipes.

::  With two wins already, the Bills are virtually eliminated from the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, unless they lose every game they have left (unlikely) or this is one of those years where the NFL's worst record goes to a team with three or four wins (also highly unlikely). Right now, I'm thinking that the Draft brings the best available right or left tackle to the Bills. (More likely right, on the basis of Demetrius Bell being off to a not-bad start this year.)

::  CBS's coverage was a mixed bag. The announcers were just kind of there, but apparently now it's a Big Frakking Deal now whenever any NFL player comes from Harvard. This just gets annoying. I know, you have to fill up airtime, but Ye Gods.

::  Also, CBS continues to irritate with their "camera shots from the area of the game" thing that they do when they come back from commercial breaks. As usual, we get the same shot of Niagara Falls that everybody who has ever watched a football game from Buffalo has seen, with the announcers saying "Ah yes, the magical splendor of Niagara Falls, thirty miles down the road from Buffalo!" or some such thing. Then, next time, we get the same shot of a guy in the kitchen at the Anchor Bar tossing chicken wings in hot sauce that everybody who has ever watched a football game from Buffalo has seen, with the announcers saying "Ah yes, they're making Buffalo wings [nobody here calls them Buffalo wings!] at the legendary Anchor Bar where they were invented!". Annoying. It bugs me every time, because NFL cities are cities, and each one has lots of cool stuff about that nobody knows about.

So, later on, they have a shot from Buffalo's Naval and Military Park, with a big old shot of the USS The Sullivans, which really impressed the hell out of me. I really think that CBS (and FOX, if they do the same thing -- I don't recall if they do!) should allow cities to pick where they take these shots, so they can get a little free publicity for area attractions. The only problem with the Naval Park shot? This time, the announcers didn't say anything! Couldn't they come up with a scripted sentence or two, like, "There's downtown Buffalo and their Naval and Military Park, where several decommissioned ships from our nation's Navy reside for tours. Lots of great history here in Buffalo!" Ugh.

::  Next week the New England Patriots come to town. Do I like the Bills' chances? Actually, I do. Sure, the Bills have lost fifteen in a row to the Pats, and they're 2-20 against them since the 2000 season, but there's this odd pattern that always seems to happen in both games, no matter whether the first game is in New England or in Buffalo. What happens is that the Bills play the Pats really hard the first time they see them, sometimes even nursing a lead well into the fourth quarter, before losing a tough one; then, the second time they see them, the Patriots just...well, they beat the crap out of 'em. It's kind of weird. So, will the Bills actually beat the Patriots? Enhhhh...I don't think so. I don't think they're ready to take that step yet, I'm sorry to say. I'd love for them to do so; I'd love for them to beat the Pats at least once while St. Tom the Overrated is under center for them. But I think that may have to wait for next year.

But, like Chris Berman always says, and like I quoted above already, "That's why they play the games!"

::  Whoa! Commercials for Hawaii Five-0's season premiere tomorrow night, and Terry O'Quinn is joining the cast? SQUEEEE!! Terry O'Quinn always makes things better by just being there. He doesn't even have to have dialogue.

OK, that's about it. Will my poor pie-faced football fan next week at last be wearing a Patriots hoodie? Here's hoping!

Bills 41, Chiefs 7

Last season, in keeping with my general liking of pies in faces, I decorated my football posts with this picture every time the Bills lost:

I'll still be using this one this year, but I'll be modifying it whenever the Bills actually win. So, here's to our poor lovely Chiefs fan!

Yeah, it's a bit infantile, but what can I say? We're talking about a sport that has big guys putting on contact gear and slamming into one another at high speeds.

So anyway, what about the Bills' 41-7 dismantling of the Chiefs?

::  After a rough first series or two, Ryan Fitzpatrick settled down nicely, completing 17 of 26 passes for 208 yards and 4 touchdowns. That's a great day. And he spread the wealth around, throwing a TD each to receivers Stevie Johnson and Donald Jones, and the other two to tight end Scott Chandler. Fitzpatrick didn't have any of those "OMG please don't get picked off" throws that he seemed to air out once per game last year, either. This guy is certainly making the most of the opportunity he's getting in Buffalo.

::  And Scott Chandler? A tight end who catches the ball? And whose catches are clutch catches, including multiple scores? We haven't seen that in Buffalo since the days of Pete Metzelaars. It got to the point with him that the Chiefs were devoting lots of attention to him, which allowed other guys to get open. I can't overstate how much I am praying that this is a harbinger of what this guy can do on a regular basis. A good tight end can make so many good things happen for an offense. I've often wondered if quarterbacks like JP Losman and Trent Edwards might have developed differently had they had a decent tight end to dump the ball on and draw attention away from receivers.

::  The defense looked quite a bit more stout today, but it still has some way to go. They certainly showed that they're susceptible to the hurry-up offense.

::  Fred Jackson continues to amaze. He's just a fantastic player. I don't think he ever fails to pick up positive yardage, and there were several plays today where he ran into a pile of Chief defenders and single-handedly pushed the pile back as he forced them to yield a few more yards. What a player. I hope he's got a few years left in him. He's old for a running back in terms of years, but he's only been in the NFL for a couple of years, so in terms of mileage, he's still in his prime.

::  For Bills fans hoping that the team can still finish with the top pick in the draft and get Andrew Luck (assuming his stock doesn't drop due to a bad season), this victory doesn't help. Over the last ten years, the teams that wound up with the top pick averaged just 1.7 wins a season. The Bills are halfway to screwing themselves out of Andrew Luck!

Next week, the Bills open at home against the Raiders, a team which seems to be highly regarded for reasons I don't quite understand. They were 8-8 last year, but it was a very odd 8-8 -- they went 6-0 in their division, but 2-6 outside it. We'll see. Bring 'em on!

Saturday Centus: Football Edition!

I'm actually nine days late with this one. I was stumped for quite a while, but then a really goofy idea came to me, and here it is.

"Hey, Joe!"

"Frank! Hey Tom, this is Frank. New on our floor, so I invited him to watch the game."

"Fine," said Tom. "Come on in. Chips and snacks on the table, beer in the cooler and fridge. Pizza's almost ready."

Tom went to the kitchen.

"He made pizza?"

"Yeah, well, don't get excited. He makes pizza depending on how good he thinks the team is."

Tom came back in, pizza in hand. Frank looked at it.

"What kind of a pizza is this?!" he said.

"Peanut butter and anchovy," Tom said.

"Gonna be a long season?" Frank asked.

"Yup," said Tom and Joe.

Yup...it's football season! And it's time for my general rundown of thoughts on the season that just launched yesterday (actually last Thursday, but there it is).

How good will the Buffalo Bills be? Well, they won't be all that great. But I don't think they'll be a train wreck either, unless injuries rip giant holes in their offensive line. (This is, sadly, not beyond the realm of possibility.) I expect better defense and, as long as everybody stays healthy, an offense that will be better than most expect. I look at this team and frankly I see, with an average amount of good luck, a 7-9 team. And while 7-9 is annoyingly similar to what we've seen from the Bills most years of late, in this case 7-9 would be an improvement. We'll see what happens.

The Bills dumped some salaries in the offseason, by doing things like trading Lee Evans to the Ravens for a 4th-round pick next year and by not resigning free agents like Paul Poszluzny (no idea how to spell that) and Donte Whitner. Interestingly, every player the Bills let go is one who has been generally ripped for being overrated at best while they were here, but now that they're gone, fans are taking the opposite tack, ripping the Bills for dumping salary! My simple response is, "How badly are the Bills likely to miss these guys?" If the answer is "Not very badly", then I'm thinking, "Then let 'em go." The Bills seem to have stopped throwing money at average players, which is good. Right now it leaves them with an awful lot of cap room, but so what? Now they can figure out which of their young guys they want to sign to long-term deals and have the room to do it.

Fans and media also ripped the Bills for not signing more than a couple free agents, none of whom are really marquee players. Again I say, So what? Everyone agrees that the Bills are lacking in talent across the board and need to really hit on a number of draft picks in order to build a nucleus of winning talent for the future. That being the case, it makes sense not to throw money at free agents on a team that's unlikely to win much to begin with. That's been the Wsahington Redskins approach, and it has not produced good results down there. I don't want to do that here, either.

So anyway: with a total "best-case" scenario, I can see the Bills eking out a 9-7 record, but "total best-case" scenarios obviously never happen. I'm thinking they'll be in the 6-10 or 7-9 range. We'll see.

I won't bother predicting the rest of the divisions, but I will make a Super Bowl pick: Packers over Ravens. I think the Ravens are ready to step forward and knock off the Steelers, who will likely have a down year (for them, anyway). And I think that the Packers are the best-equipped-to-repeat team I've seen since the 2004 Patriots.

Other random predictions:

::  Assuming Andrew Luck doesn't have a crappy season that doesn't send his draft stock into freefall, I expect him to end up either in Cincinnati or Washington.

::  I don't think that Peyton Manning has more than two years left.

::  I would not be at all surprised to see Tom Brady start to show signs of physical decline this year. (This would, of course, make me happy.) I would also say that if St. Tom the Overrated is to ever win another ring, it has to be this year. If he doesn't win his fourth ring this year, he won't win it ever.

::  I am not nearly as sold on the Jets as everybody else is. Mark Sanchez doesn't impress me all that much.

::  Nor am I convinced that the Eagles are going to be great, although I do think they'll win that division.

::  The Bills will conform to their usual pattern versus the Patriots: they'll play them close but lose the first one, and get their arses kicked in the second one. Oh well.

That's about it. Let there be football!