Friday, October 03, 2003

The Future is coming...but isn't it always?

Michael Lopez has some thoughts on the future of the music industry. Basically, Michael thinks that the RIAA's legal wranglings right now are actually the beginnings of death-spasms, and that performance is going to replace recording as music's coin-of-the-realm. I'm not sure how much I agree with him.

Forecasting the future is always incredibly tricky business. (Remember, if my predictions had come about, Jim Kelly's hand would be sporting three Super Bowl rings right now.) I do think that performance will see something of a comeback, but I'm not at all convinced it's going to replace recording as the musicians' main source of income. I take it as pretty much of a given in human nature that, given a new thing X, someone will figure out a way to make money on X. And since recorded music isn't going anywhere -- what's being hashed out right now is the how of recorded music, not its existence -- eventually we're going to end up paying for it, somehow. Recorded music will not be free, because nothing that has ever been free has ever stayed free, and I see little reason to expect music to buck that trend.

And if it's not free, I can't imagine the musicians sitting idly by while others make money on their work.

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