Monday, December 08, 2003

Shut up about running the ball, already!!

Yeah, I can hear the refrain now. Deal with it. The Bills throttled the New York Jets yesterday by handing the ball to Travis Henry 36 times, which he turned into 169 yards. Powerful running means controling the game tempo. It means keeping the other team's offense from developing a rhythm. It means a fresher defense late in the game. And it means a happy blogger! In your face, Flanders!

There were a few hiccups, of course -- unless, of course, you consider a quarterback sneak to be the play to call when it's third-and-five and your quarterback has very little mobility and has suffered two concussions in the last two weeks. And Travis Henry fumbled late in the game, which brings up all manner of hemming-and-hawing about Henry's problems with holding onto the ball. And yes, that was a big problem for Henry in his first two years; look at his fumbles-to-carries ratio over his career versus a few other running backs:



BackFum/Carries
T. Henry1/41
D. Staley1/65
C. Portis1/66
A. Smith1/72
L. Tomlinson1/79
P. Holmes1/124


So basically, if you give a running back 30 carries a game, Travis Henry roughly fumbles every second game, where the other fellows fumble once every third game (and Priest Holmes fumbles once every four games). But Henry's numbers are really skewed by the fact that his fumbles came in bunches in his rookie and second year; last year he fumbled a lot early on but changed his running style to protect the ball better. His ratio this year is a healthy 1/68.

The Bills are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, but they would have to "win out" -- win each of their remaining games -- which I don't think they can do, given that they still have to travel to Tennessee and New England. It's nice to see that they aren't giving up and that they're showing pride and all that, but it's also frustrating to get a glimpse now that we're into "Stick a fork in 'em" time of what they could have done this year had they not taken the "All throwing, all the time!" approach for much of the year. Oh well.

Some other football stuff:

:: I see that someone in the Dolphins locker room actually turned the page on the calendar, thus letting in the Demons of December. That's how I know when to buy a tree every year: when the Dolphins begin to suck is when I need to put the decorations up.

:: What a great year for the AFC! There are four teams -- the Chiefs, Colts, Titans and Patriots -- that I would pick to win the Super Bowl if they get there. And each can win on the road, although the Titans are showing a bit of slippage right now. And lest people get too excited over their particular team securing the home-field advantage, remember this: since 1992, the AFC top seed is only 3-9 in converting home field advantage into a Super Bowl appearance (the '93 Bills, '98 Broncos, and '02 Raiders are the only ones to do it). Nobody's safe!

:: As far as the NFC goes....who cares? I really don't think any of the best teams in the NFC this year could beat any of the top AFC teams in the Super Bowl.

:: I find it hilarious that the BCS system is falling on its face, and that the annual cries for a college football playoff are ringing again. I don't really care enough about college football to think that a playoff is that important, but it seems to me that these guys have to be in class sometime, don't they? And besides, the BCS controversy, like the "dueling polls" that preceded it, gives the college football fans something to talk about. I mean, it's not like the college fans can talk much about the great careers of the players on their respective teams, since these days players give three years at most before they're off for the NFL. Part of what attracts me to sports like the NFL and MLB is the long-term continuity of the franchise, which really doesn't exist at the college level. And there's just something inherently funny about these little-known schools shouting, "Hey! We went 6-5 this year! We're going to the Hardee's Bowl in wonderful Galveston on January 1!"

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