Run the Ball, Stop the Run!

Nefarious Neddie, in praising his beloved Philadelphia Eagles (who have enjoyed quite the resurgence after a sluggish start to their season), says that I harp on running the ball. So, in this post, I shall harp away on…running the ball. Ha! I've not yet begun to harp!

Anyhow, yesterday I had a little extra time on my hands (a lot, actually) and I looked at some statistical information from the first 36 Super Bowls. (Last year's game was #37. I couldn't find the stats on that game regarding league rankings.) Specifically, I looked at how each team to make the Super Bowl ranked in the NFL that season in terms of rushing yardage gained (a higher number meaning more success running the ball) and rushing yardage given up (a higher number meaning more success defending the run – i.e., giving up fewer rushing yards). I also compared each Super Bowl team's rushing performance in each individual Super Bowl. And I made a nifty spreadsheet of it all! Cool, eh? (It was mainly a way of exercising my Excel skills.)

Anyway, here are some factoids regarding Super Bowl teams and their success at both running the ball and stopping the other team(s) from running it. Keep in mind, as of Super Bowl XXXVI, there had been 72 Super Bowl teams (74 as of last year's game, but again I couldn't find those stats for the Bucs and Raiders); "rushing offense" is defined as rushing yards gained; "rushing defense" is defined in terms of rushing yards surrendered. OK?

:: Of the 72 teams to reach the Super Bowl, only 20 were not among the NFL's top ten teams in rushing offense.

:: Of the 72 teams to reach the Super Bowl, only 17 were not among the NFL's top ten teams in rushing defense.

:: Of the 72 teams to reach the Super Bowl, only 8 were among the bottom 50% of the NFL's teams in rushing offense.

:: Of the 72 teams to reach the Super Bowl, only 13 were among the bottom 50% of the NFL's teams in rushing defense.

:: Of the 72 teams to reach the Super Bowl, only 7 were not in the NFL's Top Ten teams rushing or defending the rush. Of those 7 teams, only 3 won the Super Bowl (Packers, SB I; 49ers, SB XVI; Patriots, SB XXXVI).

:: Of the 72 teams to reach the Super Bowl, only 2 ranked in the bottom 50% in both rushing offense and defense. Both lost. (Vikings in SB XI, Dolphins in SB XIX)

:: Of the 72 teams to reach the Super Bowl, only 7 were ranked #20 or worse in defending the run. Only 1 of those teams, the Packers in SB II, won the Super Bowl. (The Bills had 2 of those teams.)

:: The team with the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense has reached the Super Bowl only 8 times, and of those, only 2 (the Dolphins in SB VII, the Bears in SB XX) won the game. (Again, the Bills had 2 of those teams.)

:: The team with the NFL's top-ranked rushing defense has reached the Super Bowl only 9 times, and of those, 6 have won.

:: Interestingly, of the 36 Super Bowls played as of 2002, only 1 featured the NFL's top two rushing offenses (SB XXIII, when the #2 49ers defeated the #1 Bengals).

:: Of the 36 Super Bowls played as of 2002, only 3 featured the NFL's top two rushing defenses.

:: Of the 36 Super Bowls played as of 2002, 21 were won by the team with the higher ranking in rushing offense.

:: Of the 36 Super Bowls played as of 2002, 22 were won by the team with the higher ranking in rushing defense.

:: In only 7 of 36 Super Bowls played did the losing team outrush the winner.

:: In only 5 of 36 Super Bowls played did the winning team rush for fewer than 100 yards.

:: In 22 of 36 Super Bowls played, the losing team was held to less than 100 rushing yards.

:: The record for most rushing yards gained by a Super Bowl champion is 280, by the Redskins in SB XXII.

:: The record for fewest rushing yards gained by a Super Bowl champion is 29, by the Rams in SB XXXIV.

:: The record for most rushing yards by a Super Bowl loser is 166, by the Bills in SB XXV.

:: The record for fewest rushing yards gained by a Super Bowl loser is 7, by the Patriots in SB XX.

So what's the lesson here? A lot can happen in football, obviously. Just looking at the stats, there is no way the Bills should have lost Super Bowl XXVII to Dallas by a score of 52-17 – but stats don't predict turnovers, which tend to play an enlarged role in Super Bowls. (The Bills had seven in that game.) Likewise, you wouldn't figure that the Rams could win SB XXXIV while picking up just 29 rushing yards, but that doesn't take into account Kurt Warner throwing for more than 400 yards. (The Rams would pay for going pass-wacky, though, two years later when they failed to run the ball on a Patriots run defense that was rated #19, choosing instead to throw…and lose.)

It is possible to be too run dependent in the NFL. I'm pretty sure that only twice has the team with the winner of the NFL's rushing title gone to the Super Bowl; OJ Simpson and Barry Sanders never made it with their teams, and Walter Payton didn't get there until his career was nearly over and the great 1985 Bears defense was built. But generally, "Run the ball and stop the run" is as close to a foolproof philosophy for winning that you're going to get. You're far more likely to win a Super Bowl if your rushing offense and rushing defense are sound than if they are not.