Wait 'til next year!

The 2004 season ended for the Buffalo Bills about three hours ago, and just a few minutes ago the final playoff spot appeared to have been sewn up, so time for a bit of retrospective....

:: My original prediction for the Bills was that they would struggle a lot on offense, field a decent defense, and likely pull together enough for a respectable 8-8 season. They opened up 0-4, sending many Bills fans -- including myself -- into a tailspin of horror and despair (because we NFL fans are an overly emotional lot), even to such a degree as bemoaning the fact that the Bills traded their 2005 first round draft pick away (to Dallas) so they could take J.P. Losman in the first round last year.

And after a bit more staggering about, the Bills reached a 3-6 record -- whereupon they embarked on a remarkable six-game winning streak to head into the final week with a 9-6 record and a shot at the playoffs. All they had to do was hope for either the Jets or the Broncos to lose, and to win against a Pittsburgh Steelers team. The good news on the latter front was that the Steelers already had home field advantage in the AFC locked up. The bad news was that the Steelers are still a very formidable team.

The Bills lost, 29-24, in a game which wasn't that close. The playoff dream is now deferred for another year as the team finished 9-7, one game better than I had predicted. And had the Bills played in the NFC, they likely would have won a division or two.

So what do the Bills need for next year? They need at least one new offensive lineman, and I think they need a defensive lineman as well -- someone who can provide a bit of pass-rush from the end position. They also need to continue developing J.P. Losman for his inevitable 2006 takeover at quarterback (I strongly suspect that Drew Bledsoe posted a good enough performance in 2004 to remain the starter at least at the outset of 2005). But I don't think that the Bills really need a whole lot of tweaking. This year they became the team that nobody wants to play, and that's often the last step before becoming one of the really good teams in the NFL. Here's hoping.

At least Dallas's extra first-round pick this year will be something like 19th or 20th, as opposed to what looked like a top-five pick just three months ago.

:: OK, now that the final standings are in (for the most part), time to look at my predictions versus the reality. Here, again, are my predicted division and wildcard winners, with the actual winners in parentheses:

AFC East: New England Stupid Patriots (New England)
AFC North: Cincinnati (Pittsburgh)
AFC South: Tennessee (Indianapolis)
AFC West: Denver (San Diego)
AFC wildcards: Indianapolis, Baltimore (NY Jets, Denver)

NFC East: Philadelphia (Philadelphia)
NFC North: Minnesota (Green Bay)
NFC South: Carolina (Atlanta)
NFC West: Seattle (Seattle)
NFC wildcards: Dallas, Washington (Minnesota, St. Louis)

Super Bowl prediction: New England Stupid Patriots defeat Philadelphia Eagles.

So, it turns out that I picked only three of eight divisions correctly. However, looking at the total group of teams that made the playoffs, either by winning their division or securing a wildcard berth, I picked six of the eventual twelve playoff teams, and two more of those very nearly made it in (Baltimore and Carolina). I suspect that most observers are surprised that Cincinnati and Dallas didn't have better years than they did, and I don't recall anybody picking San Diego to win much of anything. (I have no idea what I was thinking about Washington, though. No idea at all. They stank, stunk, and stink'd.)

I'm sticking with my Super Bowl prediction. The Steelers became the fourth NFL team to post a 15-1 record, and also the first AFC team to ever do it. But they're still starting a rookie at QB, and the Steelers' recent record of success at converting home field advantage into a Super Bowl appearance (they're 1-3 in AFC Championship Games they've hosted since Bill Cowher took over, and in 1992 they were the top seed in the AFC but lost a divisional playoff game at home to none other than the Bills) isn't exactly encouraging. The StuPats have the experience, I'm sad to say.

As for the Eagles, I have no idea what to expect. The injury to Terrell Owens -- who will be lucky to return by the time of the Super Bowl, if the Eagles get that far -- rewrote that book, and I'm not encouraged by the way the Eagles have basically played dead in their last two games. No, I'm not in principle against the idea of a team that has playoff position sewn up resting the starters in their last game or two, but that doesn't mean they have to completely roll over. Somehow Bill Cowher managed to rest his starters and still have all of his backups ready to play a fired-up Bills team, on the road, when that team was still playing for its playoff life. And they won. The last two Eagles games do not, in my opinion, speak all that well of Andy Reid's motivational skills, and the Falcons and Packers could very well be a serious test for them in an NFC title game.

So the board is set, and the pieces are moving. We come to it at last. All is in readiness for another year of StuPat ascendence, and another year of Shadow in the NFL.

Tom Brady to rule them all, Tom Brady to find them....ugh!