Byzantium's Shores: chronicling the misadventures of an overalls-clad hippie

NFL 2003, continued.

OK, I've weighed in on the Bills and the rest of the AFC East. Now I'll go on about the rest of the league a bit. (Not every team, though. I have my limits.)

:: If the Minnesota Vikings, my favorite NFC team, were to win the Super Bowl, I think it might make the third page of the Buffalo sports section. That's how hard it is to come by Vikings news out here. The Vikes struck me as a disaster-in-waiting at the beginning of last year, and for a time I genuinely believed that they should waive Randy Moss and just go right into a rebuilding project. Moss appears, though, to have moved a bit beyond his stupid attitude, and the Vikes in general appear to be improving, as far as I can tell. Every year there's at least one playoff team that totally surprises me. Last year it was the Browns. This year, it could well be the Vikings.

:: My second-favorite team overall is the Pittsburgh Steelers. I only root against the Steelers if, and only if, they are either playing the Bills or a Steeler victory would hurt the Bills (by, say, denying them home-field advantage or a playoff berth). That said, I expect that for the thirty-seventh consecutive year, the Steelers will get to the playoffs, that they will fail to advance to the Super Bowl, and that in the postgame press conference Bill Cowher will look like his jaw is about to burst into flame while his eyes blast Cyclops-like death-rays. But at least it won't be a case of Kordell Stewart suddenly realizing he's in a big game and thus lowering his play to the level of a drunken Arena Leaguer. That's progress, right?

:: So Jake Plummer is in Denver now. Maybe he'll flourish under a new system, better coaches and better ownership. But he's also got a number of years' worth of bad habits, bred or allowed to fester under the aegis of a crappy organization in Arizona. But maybe he's just the guy, now that a few years of Brian Griese has allowed the memory of John Elway to move, just slightly, into the area of local legend as opposed to the immediate past, to lead the Denver resurgence. The Broncos should have been better last year than they were.

:: And speaking of Arizona, so Emmitt Smith's going to finish out his days there. Big whoop. The only real question mark for Smith now is if, when he finally decides to hang 'em up - - probably after this year - - Jerry Jones will let him sign one of those one-day deals next summer just so he can officially retire as a Cowboy.

Here are a couple of questions about the Cardinals: Do Cardinals fans exist? And, if so, does it bother them that the greatest moment in their franchise's history, receiver Rod Tidwell's touchdown catch to beat Dallas and put the Cards in the playoffs, was a fictional moment from a movie?

:: Will Oliver Willis, Blogistan's source for All Things Redskins, be smiling this year? Well, Oliver strikes me as the kind of football fan who can find something to smile about even in a 3-13 year, so it's all relative. He won't be dancing in the streets celebrating the 'Skins' return to the Super Bowl, but he'll probably be encouraged with a 9-7 campaign.

:: So, who will actually win the divisions this year? Below are my predictions. Consider that last year, I correctly predicted six of eight division winners. Heh. Indeed.

AFC East: Buffalo
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC South: Tennessee
AFC West: Kansas City
AFC Wildcards: New England, Denver

NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: Tampa
NFC West: San Francisco
NFC Wildcards: St. Louis, NY Giants

The division I'm "iffiest" about is the NFC West. I'm mainly picking the Rams in the playoffs for sentimental reasons - - I just really dig Kurt Warner, and I'd like to see him return to form. I also think that my predicted order-of-finish in the NFC East could very well be reversed; the Giants just might be hungrier than the Eagles. (Each team has good reason to be hungry.) And there are always the Falcons…but Michael Vick's hurt right now, which might put them in a hole to start with. I'd also watch out for Minnesota, Seattle and Cleveland this year, too. Each of those teams could be a major spoiler or even get into the playoffs. Finally, I'm wary of leaving Oakland out of my post-season mix, but I also think they don't have enough gas in the tank to overcome the younger teams in their division.

:: And finally, who will win the Super Bowl? Well, looking at the last six Super Bowl champions, a pattern emerges.

1997: Denver
1998: Denver
1999: St. Louis
2000: New England
2001: Baltimore
2002: Tampa
2003: ???

What's the pattern? Well, aside from the repeat-champion 1998 Broncos, every one of these champions is a team that, to that point in franchise history, had never won a Super Bowl before. (Even the 1996 Packers could be considered part of this trend, since their previous championship had been 30 years before.) The era of parity and free agency has genuinely created an atmosphere where any team, run coached and managed well, can put together a Super Bowl champion. If 2003 keeps to this formula and crowns a brand new champion that has never won it all before, I expect it to be one of these teams: Buffalo, Tennessee, Atlanta (even though I'm not even picking them to make the playoffs!) or Philadelphia. Of those teams, the Titans and Eagles are probably the most desperate to win before the current window closes and they go back into cap-forced rebuilding.

But I don't think that's going to happen this time out, because I think we're going to see a repeat champion for the first time in five years. I think that Tampa will win it all, again - - mainly because they're returning pretty much the exact same team that won it all last year. They are still ascendant. Free agency hasn't stripped them yet, their players are not too old yet, and they are built around physical defense. About the only thing that I can see keeping them from winning a second consecutive Super Bowl is injuries. Who will they beat? Tennessee, probably. So that's my pick: The Buccaneers over the Titans.

Repeating in the NFL has always been tough, but I don't think it's any more tough in the free agency era than it was before. It's simply that the formula is different. If you can put together a Super Bowl-caliber team, and win that first championship early in the four or five years that are at most what you'll have to do it, then you'll be able to do what the Bucs are able to do this year: come back from a championship with almost the same personnel. What's harder now is creating a dynasty: building a franchise that dominates for year after year over a long period. I expect we'll see repeat champions at about the same clip as before: one will come along every five, six, or seven years. (Between the 1978/1979 Steelers and the 1988-1989 49ers, there were no repeat champions. But the period between 1988 and 1998 saw three repeats - - the 49ers, the Cowboys, and the Broncos.)

So, that's it. I will, of course, track the progress each week in boring fashion. So, I'm ready for some football!