Monday, September 08, 2003

A general assumption of the current economic malaise is that, although the recovery has not yet generated jobs, it's really only a matter of time and continuing the growth until employers have to increase payrolls. In other words, the business cycle will sooner or later lead to job creation, so the monthly reports job losses will end at some point.

But that might not be the case, unfortunately. The ominous lede is as follows:

The vast majority of the 2.7 million job losses since the 2001 recession began were the result of permanent changes in the U.S. economy and are not coming back, which means the labor market will not regain strength until new positions are created in novel and dynamic economic sectors, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study has concluded.

Color me worried.

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