2006: Taiwan's year of dread?

Via MeFi I see this article which speculates on how China may go about the reconquest of Taiwan, as early as 2006 -- that year being (a) when China's military strength would surpass Taiwan's defensive capabilities (I find the apparent fact that China couldn't do so already surprising, but this is based on complete ignorance on my part) and (b) two years before the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing. That latter point strikes me as being a bit odd; surely even two years after the fact, such a move on China's part would still cast a significant political pall over their Games. (Would the American President, either Bush or Kerry, repeat President Carter's move in 1980 and halt American participation in the Games? In fact, how would we respond? It seems to me we'd likely mobilize forces in the region, make a show of deep concern, but stop well short of going to war to protect Taiwan. But again, I'm very ignorant of the whole situation.)

Michelle, do you have any thoughts that you'd be willing to share?