Tuesday, November 30, 2004

Why can't every Sunday be the proverbial "Any given Sunday"?

(NOTE: I wrote this post yesterday, and then I had to save it in Word because Blogger wasn't publishing at all for me. I know I recently said that posting here might be more sparse than usual, but lately a lot of that's been because of Blogger choking, not me. So thanks for checking in repeatedly, to all nine of my readers. Hmmmm...Nine Readers, and one Blog to Rule Them All!)

The Buffalo Shitty Bills traveled to Seattle over the weekend, to play the Seahawks. Let's recap the situation: the ShiBills went into the weekend with a 4-6 record, with four of those six losses coming in all four of the ShiBills' road games this year. Their opponent, the Seahawks, were 6-4 and leading their division. This looked for all the world like a no-brainer: a crappy road team having a lackluster season on the road against a division leader? Just pencil in the "L" and call it a day.

Except here's where Chris Berman's voice intones: That's why they play the games.

Final score: ShiBills 38, Seahawks 9.

Huh. Imagine that. The ShiBills scored on their first possession of the game (something they haven't done all year); they won on the road (something they haven't done all year); they had four rushing touchdowns, each by Willis McGahee (something they haven't done all year). They protected Drew Bledsoe pretty well (haven't done that much all year), and they prevailed despite losing the turnover battle (something they haven't come close to doing all year).

So, did the ShiBills beat up on a paper tiger, or are they showing legitimate signs of life? Probably a bit of both. The Seahawks have some talent, but they're still nowhere near being one of the NFC's elite teams, division leader or no. And the ShiBills have started to come together in several aspects of their game of late, which I personally hold to the singular factor of Willis McGahee taking over the starting job at running back. The defense continues to gel, although it still bothers me that their defensive line generates so little pressure. The offensive line is playing much better now than they were earlier in the year (and what worries me now is that the personnel people will point to this stretch of games in the offseason and say that the ShiBills don't need to make any improvements to the line).

Drew Bledsoe did throw three interceptions, but he kept his composure after each one, whereas before he would have likely crumpled. Bledsoe's a maddening guy to watch, I have to admit: I wonder how New England fans stood watching him all those years. He's got amazing physical tools, but it's not unlike watching the greatest carpenter in the world produce a table with one leg nine inches shorter than the others. Weird.

Can the ShiBills still make the playoffs? I seriously doubt it. They would have to run the table to do so, and although all of their remaining games appear winnable (with the possible exception of Pittsburgh on the final day of the season, but then, the Steelers may be heading into that game with either home field or the second bye week locked in, and therefore rest their starters), I don't see them winning them all. And that would keep them out, because the AFC is so deep right now that there almost certainly will be a 10-6 team or two -- and maybe even an 11-5 team -- in the AFC that doesn't make the playoffs.

:: Looking at the remaining schedules of both the New England Stupid Patriots, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Philadelphia Eagles, it's conceivable that the NFL could have three teams go 15-1 this year. That would be something to see. There have been only three 15-1 teams since the NFL went to the 16-game schedule, and two of those went on to win the Super Bowl (1984 49ers, 1985 Bears). (The 1998 Vikings lost the NFC Championship Game.)

:: If you're the defensive coordinator of either team in a game that ends up in a final score of 58-48, how do you face your boss on Monday morning? I'm not sure I could even show my face at the practice facility.

:: This week's games bring November in the NFL to an end, so here's the current roundup of how my preseason picks are standing up. My predictions follow the actual leaders, in parentheses:

AFC East: New England StuPats (New England)
AFC North: Pittsburgh (Cincinnati)
AFC South: Indianapolis (Tennessee)
AFC West: San Diego (Denver)
AFC Wildcards: NYJets, Baltimore (Indianapolis, Baltimore)

NFC East: Philadelphia (Philadelphia)
NFC North: Minnesota (Minnesota)
NFC South: Atlanta (Carolina)
NFC West: Seattle (Seattle)
NFC Wildcards: Green Bay, St. Louis (Dallas, Washington)

So, as of right now, I have four of the eight divisions right, and I don't really see any chance of that ratio improving in my favor, so that's it. Looking at playoff spots, out of twelve available spots (four division winners and two wildcards in each conference), my ratio is the same: six of twelve, for the same fifty percent.

I actually hate making this comparison every month, because each time it reminds me that I thought Dallas and Washington weren't going to suck. Oy.

As for my Super Bowl prediction, it's looking pretty good: the StuPats and the Eagles are both 10-1, and the Eagles have actually already clinched a playoff berth.

Now come the final five weeks, when the NFL gets wild and wooly. Bring it on!

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